Transit Receipts Would Cover 21% of the House Bill's Five-Year Highway Funding Gap

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy urged Congress to eliminate the Mass Transit AccountMass Transit AccountThe part of the Highway Trust Fund that receives a designated share of fuel-tax revenue and supports public-transit capital programs, according to [CRS](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/HTML/R48644.html). and consolidate its fuel-tax revenue into the highway fund, according to a July 23 [Reuters report](https://kfgo.com/2026/07/23/trump-administration-urges-congress-to-pass-permanent-daylight-saving-time/) based on a letter the news organization reviewed. Reuters did not publish the letter, and its report does not say whether Duffy also proposed ending a separate transfer from the highway accounthighway accountThe part of the Highway Trust Fund that primarily finances federal highway, highway-safety and related research programs, according to [CRS](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48845). to the transit account.

The request arrived as Congress considered the next surface-transportation law. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee ordered H.R. 8870H.R. 8870The House bill number for the proposed BUILD America 250 Act, a surface-transportation bill considered by the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee in May 2026, according to the [House Committee Repository](https://docs.house.gov/committee/Calendar/ByEvent.aspx?EventID=119211)., the BUILD America 250 Act, favorably reported by a recorded vote of 62-2, according to the [House Committee Repository](https://docs.house.gov/committee/Calendar/ByEvent.aspx?EventID=119211). The current authorization for federal surface-transportation programs expires on [September 30, 2026](https://www.transportation.gov/regulations/federal-register-documents/2025-13663).

The underlying financing problem is not new. On June 16, [CBOCBOThe Congressional Budget Office is the nonpartisan congressional agency that produced the account-level estimates used in this analysis, as described on [CBO's overview page](https://www.cbo.gov/about/overview). said](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62409) Highway Trust FundHighway Trust FundA federal accounting mechanism that receives transportation-related taxes and finances designated highway and public-transit programs through separate accounts, as explained by [CBO](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62409). revenue had fallen short of federal highway and transit spending for more than two decades and projected that the fund's balances would be exhausted in 2028.

The budget document used here is [CBO's July 9 estimate](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62562) of selected provisions in H.R. 8870. It predates Duffy's reported request and does not evaluate it. Cumulant Research therefore treats the request as a counterfactualcounterfactualA structured what-if calculation that changes one assumption while holding specified other inputs constant. layered onto CBO's published figures.

Across fiscal 2027-2031, [CBO Table 1](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-07/hr8870-htf.pdf) shows $346.382 billion in highway-account outlays, $216.304 billion in highway-account receipts and $6 billion transferred from the highway account to the transit account. The draft article incorrectly stated that highway receipts totaled $215.304 billion. The correct sum is $216.304 billion.

The five-year operating gapoperating gapThis article's name for the amount by which highway outlays and the flex transfer exceed the highway account's receipts during a year. is therefore $136.078 billion: $346.382 billion of outlays, plus $6 billion transferred to transit, minus $216.304 billion of highway receipts. This calculation adds the five individual yearly gaps rather than measuring the trust fund's ending balance.

The transit account's projected receipts total $28.941 billion over the same period. Subtracting those receipts from the $136.078 billion operating gap leaves $107.137 billion. The redirected receipts would close 21.3% of the gap.

A simple analogy helps. Imagine two labeled jars receiving different shares of the same transportation taxes. Relabeling the money headed for the transit jar adds cash to the highway jar, but it does not reduce the bills already assigned to that highway jar. Under CBO's spending figures, those bills would still exceed the redirected inflows in every year.

For each fiscal yearfiscal yearThe federal government's accounting year, which runs from October 1 through September 30, as explained in the [GAO budget glossary](https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-05-734SP)., Cumulant Research started with the highway account's outlays, added the $1.2 billion that CBO shows leaving the account as a flex transferflex transferCBO's term for money transferred from the Highway Trust Fund's highway account to its transit account; its table projects $1.2 billion a year for fiscal 2027-2031., and subtracted highway receipts. For fiscal 2027, for example, the calculation is $66.176 billion plus $1.2 billion minus $42.269 billion, producing an original operating gap of $25.107 billion. Every input comes from [CBO Table 1](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-07/hr8870-htf.pdf).

The receiptreceiptMoney credited to a government account from taxes, fees or another inflow; this analysis uses the receipt rows in [CBO Table 1](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-07/hr8870-htf.pdf).-redirection scenario then subtracts that year's transit-account receipts. In fiscal 2027, subtracting $5.731 billion from the $25.107 billion original gap leaves $19.376 billion. The same procedure produces remaining gaps of $21.778 billion in fiscal 2028, $21.795 billion in fiscal 2029, $21.744 billion in fiscal 2030 and $22.444 billion in fiscal 2031.

The analysis holds highway outlays, interest, starting balances and all other bill assumptions constant. It does not estimate whether lawmakers, agencies, drivers or transit systems would change their behavior after the policy change.

CBO reports a $99.486 billion cumulative highway-account shortfall at the end of fiscal 2031 under H.R. 8870. That is a different measure from the $136.078 billion five-year operating gap calculated here. CBO's cumulative measure incorporates money already in the account, interest and the timing of cash flows, as well as receipts, transfers and outlays. Its table also reports a $48.164 billion cumulative transit-account shortfall at the end of fiscal 2031. [Both figures appear in the memorandum section of Table 1](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-07/hr8870-htf.pdf).

The distinction is similar to a household that starts the year with savings. Spending more than current income creates an operating gap, but the bank balance does not become negative until those savings are exhausted. The operating gap measures the mismatch between new inflows and payments. The cumulative shortfallcumulative shortfallCBO's measure of how far an account would fall below zero after considering its starting balance, interest, receipts, transfers and outlays. measures the eventual amount below zero after the starting balance and other cash movements are included.

Because redirecting receipts could also alter balances and interest over time, this article does not present an adjusted version of CBO's cumulative-shortfall figure. Producing that number responsibly would require a new account-level score from CBO or a more detailed cash-timing model.

CBO projects that $1.2 billion will move from the highway account to the transit account in each year from fiscal 2027 through 2031. CBO calls these amounts flexed balances and defines them as transfers from the highway account to the transit account. Over five years, they total $6 billion. [The figures and definition appear in Table 1](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-07/hr8870-htf.pdf).

Reuters reported that Duffy wanted to eliminate the Mass Transit Account and consolidate fuel-tax revenue into the highway fund. It did not separately say that the $1.2 billion yearly transfers would end. The main result therefore keeps those transfers in place.

If Congress redirected the transit receipts and also ended every projected flex transfer, the five-year gap would fall by another $6 billion, from $107.137 billion to $101.137 billion. That scenario would close 25.7% of the original $136.078 billion gap rather than 21.3%.

Eliminating the Mass Transit Account would remove its dedicated trust-fund financing, but it would not by itself determine how much Congress ultimately spends on public transportation. [CRSCRSThe Congressional Research Service prepares nonpartisan policy analysis for members and committees of Congress. identified](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/HTML/R48644.html) a policy option under which transit receipts are redirected to highways while transit programs are financed through annual appropriations or multiyear advance appropriations from the Treasury's general fundgeneral fundThe Treasury's broad pool of federal revenue, rather than money legally dedicated to one trust fund or program..

The financing method matters because transit agencies plan vehicle purchases and construction over several years. CRS says annual appropriations can provide less certainty than contract authoritycontract authorityLegal authority that lets a federal agency commit program funding before separate legislation provides the cash needed for payment, as explained by [CRS](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/HTML/R48644.html)., while multiyear advance appropriations can provide more year-to-year certainty. That is a claim about the predictability of federal financing, not a forecast that any particular transit project would be canceled.

The federal budget burden would also move rather than vanish if general-fund money replaced the dedicated receipts. Highway and transit spending financed from the general fund must compete with other federal priorities, a trade-off described in the [CRS highway report](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48845).

The narrow finding is robust to the two transfer assumptions tested here: redirecting the transit account's receipts would reduce the highway funding mismatch, but it would not make the highway account self-financing at H.R. 8870's projected spending levels.

The calculation does not show that redirecting the revenue would improve economic growth, reduce congestion, weaken transit service or change financial markets. Those would be questions about economic effects, service outcomes or market reactions. This analysis answers only an accounting question about the destination of projected receipts.

Congress would still need some combination of additional revenue, general-fund financing, lower highway spending or another policy change to resolve the remainder. [CRS describes](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48845) those broad categories as options for addressing the Highway Trust Fund's imbalance, but this article does not recommend among them.

Redirecting the projected transit receipts fills roughly one-fifth of the five-year highway operating gap. It does not solve the financing problem.