Research

Current research.

Cumulant studies difficult questions across finance, risk, statistical inference, model reliability, humanitarian allocation, and AI-assisted research systems.

Research programs

Financial inference and model risk

Statistical inference and model reliability in financial data, where limited decision counts and flexible analysis can make findings fragile.

Backtest inferenceDecision timingResearcher degrees of freedomModel selectionFalse discoveryRobustnessEvent studiesStatistical fragility

Portfolios and capital allocation

How diversification, concentration, and allocation behave under uncertainty and in the tails.

DiversificationDiminishing marginal risk reductionPortfolio constructionConcentrationAllocation under uncertaintyTail riskScenario analysis

Humanitarian finance

Whether allocation methods from finance can help humanitarian organizations reason about concentration, uncertainty, and limited resources.

Humanitarian resource allocationNonprofit capital allocationProgram concentrationGeographic concentrationOperational uncertaintyMission constraintsLimited resourcesImpact measurement

AI-assisted research systems

Whether multi-agent, AI-assisted workflows improve speed without sacrificing citation validity, code reliability, reproducibility, or human accountability.

Multi-agent researchCitation reliabilityCode reliabilityAutomated critiqueModel disagreementHuman reviewReproducibilityResearch provenance

Replication and failure analysis

Reproducing findings, testing published claims, diagnosing artifacts, and preserving null and failed results.

Reproducing findingsTesting published claimsDiagnosing artifactsPreserving null resultsComparing in-sample and out-of-sample behaviorDocumenting failed hypotheses

Projects

Featured projects.

Financial inference and model risk

Robustness in Backtest InferenceHow much of a historical investment edge survives multiple testing, costs, and out-of-sample evaluation.Working paper Decision Rules Under Ambiguous ProbabilitiesHow to choose when the probabilities themselves are uncertain, not just the outcomes.Research in progress

Portfolios and capital allocation

Diminishing Marginal Risk Reduction in DiversificationHow quickly diversification benefits flatten as holdings are added.Research note

Humanitarian finance

Humanitarian Portfolio Allocation Under UncertaintySpreading limited resources across programs and regions when outcomes are uncertain and benefits diminish.Research in progress

AI-assisted research systems

AI-Assisted Research ValidationWhether AI agents can reliably check citations, code, and sensitivity inside a reproducible workflow.Experimental Provenance & Citation Verification PipelineTracking sources end-to-end so every claim links back to a verifiable origin.Research in progress

Replication and failure analysis

Does the Equity Premium Survive Skeptical Inference?A replication testing whether a widely cited finding holds under stricter assumptions and new data.Replication A Catalog of Things That Did Not WorkA maintained record of abandoned models and failed hypotheses, kept because failure carries information.Null result