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Research

Current research.

Cumulant works across five connected programs concerned with uncertainty, allocation, inference, and research reliability.

Evidence fieldMultiple analytical paths remain connected to the question that produced them.

Research programs

Financial inference & model risk

Statistical inference and model reliability in financial data, where limited decision counts and flexible analysis can make findings fragile.

Backtest inferenceDecision timingResearcher degrees of freedomModel selectionFalse discoveryRobustnessEvent studiesStatistical fragility

Portfolios & capital allocation

How diversification, concentration, and allocation behave under uncertainty and in the tails.

DiversificationDiminishing marginal risk reductionPortfolio constructionConcentrationAllocation under uncertaintyTail riskScenario analysis

Humanitarian finance

Whether allocation methods from finance can help humanitarian organizations reason about concentration, uncertainty, and limited resources.

Humanitarian resource allocationNonprofit capital allocationProgram concentrationGeographic concentrationOperational uncertaintyMission constraintsLimited resourcesImpact measurement

AI-assisted research systems

Whether AI-assisted workflows improve reach without sacrificing citation validity, code reliability, reproducibility, or human accountability.

AI-assisted investigationCitation reliabilityCode reliabilityAutomated critiqueModel disagreementHuman reviewReproducibilityResearch provenance

Replication and failure analysis

Reproducing findings, testing published claims, diagnosing artifacts, and preserving null and failed results.

Reproducing findingsTesting published claimsDiagnosing artifactsPreserving null resultsComparing in-sample and out-of-sample behaviorDocumenting failed hypotheses

Projects

Featured projects.

Financial inference & model risk

Structure-Preserving Randomization InferenceTesting placement effects while holding event structure and the exogenous path fixed.Submitted

Portfolios & capital allocation

Diminishing Marginal Risk ReductionHow quickly diversification benefits flatten as holdings are added.Research note

Humanitarian finance

Portfolio Theory for Humanitarian OrganizationsAllocation under uncertainty when mission constraints change the portfolio problem.Research in progress

AI-assisted research systems

AI-Assisted Research ValidationTesting where software assistance improves review and where it introduces hidden risk.Experimental

Replication and failure analysis

Scheduled vs Surprise Information ShocksA completed study of incremental information around the Ethereum Merge.Archived / completeSEC Risk-Language Event StudyA null result preserved after an apparent signal was diagnosed as an artifact.Null result