Research in progress
Decision Rules Under Ambiguous Probabilities
How to choose when the probabilities themselves are uncertain, not just the outcomes.
Status
- Research in progress
Version
- In progress
Date
- 2025-12
Authors
- Aryan Patel
Abstract
A study of how decisions should be made when the probabilities themselves are uncertain, not only the outcomes. The work examines decision rules under ambiguity and how robust choices change when the underlying distribution is not known.
Research question
How should choices be made when the probabilities themselves are uncertain, not just the outcomes?
Methods
- Decision under ambiguity
- Robust decision rules
- Sensitivity to the assumed distribution
Data
Simulated and public data (planned).
Results
Research in progress. No completed findings are claimed.
Limitations
A developing project; design and scope are still being defined.
Code availability
- Not yet available.
Data availability
- Planned public and simulated data.
AI disclosure
- AI agents assisted with literature retrieval, code generation, analysis support, critique, and drafting. Deterministic systems produced and verified the estimates. A human researcher approved the question, design, interpretation, and release.
Reproduction status
- Concept and early analysis.