Research in progress
Humanitarian Portfolio Allocation Under Uncertainty
Spreading limited resources across programs and regions when outcomes are uncertain and benefits diminish.
Status
- Research in progress
Version
- Working draft
Date
- 2026-05
Authors
- Aryan Patel
Abstract
An investigation into whether portfolio reasoning can help humanitarian organizations allocate limited resources across programs and regions while accounting for uncertainty, concentration risk, and diminishing marginal benefit. The project examines where financial portfolio concepts transfer to humanitarian objectives and where donor restrictions, mission constraints, and uncertain impact change the allocation problem.
Research question
How should limited resources be spread across programs and regions when outcomes are uncertain and benefits diminish?
Methods
- Allocation across programs and regions
- Concentration risk
- Diminishing marginal benefit
- Donor restrictions and mission constraints
- Robust allocation under uncertainty
Data
Public humanitarian and nonprofit allocation data; provenance recorded as the work proceeds.
Results
Research in progress. No completed findings are claimed.
Limitations
Humanitarian objectives, donor restrictions, and uncertain impact change the allocation problem in ways that may limit the transfer of financial portfolio methods.
Code availability
- Internal. Not yet released.
Data availability
- Public sources; release forthcoming.
AI disclosure
- AI agents assisted with literature retrieval, code generation, analysis support, critique, and drafting. Deterministic systems produced and verified the estimates. A human researcher approved the question, design, interpretation, and release.
Reproduction status
- Internal validation.